Friday, 31 October 2025

A green Halloween

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +17pts (0.3%) at 6840. Nasdaq comp' +0.6%. Dow +0.1%. The Transports settled +1.0%. R2K +0.6%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

Equities opened broadly higher, but the gains were shaky from the start. The SPX cooled from 6879 to 6814, and recovering to settle at 6840. Volatility was a little higher, the VIX settling +3.1% to 17.44.

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Thursday, 30 October 2025

A mostly red Thursday

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, SPX -68pts (1.0%) at 6822. Nasdaq comp' -1.6%. Dow -0.2%. The Transports settled +0.9%. R2K -0.8%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, with the SPX printing an opening low of 6834. From there... considerable chop, with a secondary wave lower in the afternoon to 6820, and settling at 6822.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing 17.38, but cooling back to settle -0.1% to 16.91. 

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Wednesday, 29 October 2025

Another Fed day

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, SPX -0.3pts (0.00%) at 6890. Nasdaq comp' +0.5%. Dow -0.15%. The Transports settled +0.2%. R2K -1.1%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened choppy, if leaning on the upward side, which was enough for the SPX to print a new hist' high of 6920. From there... a holding pattern into the 2pm FOMC announcement. Powell duly appeared at 2.30pm...

The CEO of Print Central
 

The late afternoon saw a little cooling to 6851, if recovering to settle almost precisely flat at 6890.    

Volatility picked up a little, the VIX printing 17.58, and settling +3.0% to 16.92. 

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   5.12pm GMT
 
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Tuesday, 28 October 2025

The 6900s

US equity indexes closed somewhat mixed, SPX +15pts (0.2%) at 6890. Nasdaq comp' +0.8%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled -0.7%. R2K -0.5%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities mostly opened on a positive note, the SPX printing a new hist' high of 6911, and settling at 6890. Volatility picked up a little, the VIX settling +4.0 % to 16.42. 
-

Bullish construction

14c/57f is bearable


 

Bullish gold... from around $3500

Descending into Heathrow 

 

As October is soon to settle

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Monday, 27 October 2025

New week, new historic high

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, SPX +83pts (1.2%) at 6875. Nasdaq comp' +1.9%. Dow +0.7%. The Transports settled +1.3%. R2K +0.3%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a broadly positive note, the SPX clawing upward across the day to print 6877, and settling at 6875. Volatility was ground lower for the sixth day of seven, the VIX settling -3.5% to 15.79. 
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3pm update - into the close

US equities are set for sig' gains. VIX is due to settle in the 16/15s, reflective of a mainstream that is hopeful of a rate cut, and Trump-Xi... due to meet in South Korea this Thursday. 


sp'60min

VIX'60min


Summary

Regardless of the exact close, with a new hist' high, its been a very bullish start to the week. 
The s/t cyclical setup favours the bears, but the bigger daily cycles will favour the bulls into the Wed' FOMC announcement. 

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notable stock: NXPI


NXP Semicon has earnings in AH... which should be fine. 
-

notable stock: UPS

United Parcel Service has earnings early Tuesday. 
My concern would be the slowing economy.
The one upside... cheap oil/fuel.
-

notable health: UNH

 


UnitedHealth has earnings early Tues'.
The cyclical setup favours the bulls... although the cautious will leave alone. 

notable strength: TSLA 


Leading the main market upward.

notable miner: NEM


Reflective of the sector, which could see net downside into/across November. 

back at the close...

2pm update - metals and miners

US equities are still clawing upward. Meanwhile, the precious metals are rather powerfully lower, Gold -$89 (2.4%), with Silver -$1.46 (3.3%). The miner ETF of GDX is currently -3.8% at $70.01.

Weekly charts for perspective...

GLD  

SLV 

GDX 

Summary

*weekly momentum for gold, silver, and the miners, could easily tick lower for 'some week's to come. 
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Gold/GLD: new s/t low, currently around $4006. Clearly, psy' 4K is an important level. A grander washout to around big support 3500/3400s appears probable before year end. 

Silver/SLV: new s/t low, currently around $46.91. Big support psy'$40/39s
 
GDX: new s/t low, clearly due to weak gold/silver.

notable gold miner: AEM


Losing the 50dma
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notable silver miner: PAAS


Another one... that can't hold the 50dma.

Equities: sp'60min


New hist' high of 6862. Impressive, as the bigger weekly chart is offering the 6900s. 

1pm update - oil and energy

US equities remain sig' higher. Meanwhile, WTIC is currently +0.3% in the mid $61s. The energy sector ETF of XLE is currently net higher for the week by +0.4% at $88.47.

USO daily

XLE weekly


Summary

WTIC/USO: oil printed $60.67, if recovering to the $61s. The perform' is worse, relative to the sig' higher main market. 
 
XLE: energy stocks are moderately higher... lagging to the main market, restrained by oil. 

notable stock: OXY 


Lagging the sector. Daily momo still turned positive. 
-

notable nuclear stock: SMR


Friday's black candle played out. Cyclically low. 
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Equities: sp'60min


New hist' high. S/t cyclically high, set for sig' gains.  

12pm update - lunchtime chop

US equities are choppy, if holding sig' gains. VIX remains churning the 16/15s. 

sp'60min



VIX'60min

Summary

*still waiting for my server to be fixed. I'm starting to assume the rest of today is write-off.
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Well, regardless of any cooling this afternoon, with a new hist' high, its a net bullish day AND week. 

notable China stock: XPEV

I like this one for the long term.

notable weakness: F


Ford just seeing a retrace of Friday's gains
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notable fin: KKR

Its positive. At best... 128/130.
Earnings due early Thurs', Nov'7th.
I hold, would like to exit >127s
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notable miner: B


Lower with the sector  

11am update - morning strength

US equities are holding sig' gains. VIX has been crushed into the 16/15s. 

sp'60min



VIX'60min


Summary

*Whilst https://www.subscriber.tradingsunset.com is offline... I'll post here.
-

Yes, we're s/t overbought
.. but still net bullish into the Fed. 

notable stock: AAPL

New hist' high, reflective of the main market.
Earnings Thurs' AH

notable semicon: NVDA

Pushing for a new hist' high.
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notable strength: TSLA


Powering upward with the main market
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notable miner: NEM 


Lower with the sector.
The break <50dma is very bearish, supportive of the notion of 'multi-week' downside. 

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EXTRA... the following is part of a pre-market post that I never published. 
There are a few things of note...

Early movers

AAPL +0.7%, earnings Thurs' AH
AEM -3.4%
AG -4.6%
AMD +1.8%
AMZN +1.8%, earnings Thurs' AH
-
B -3.4%
BABA +2.7%
BIDU +4.7%
BMNR +5.4%
CLSK +4.6%
COIN +2.7%
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CRSP -10.2%, news?
DEO -2.0%
DRD -4.2%
FCX +0.7%, with copper +5cents to $5.17
FUTU +3.3%
GFI -5.6%
GME +5.2%
GOOGL +2.1%, earnings Wed' AH
-
HMY -4.3%
HOG -1.3%, Morgan Stanley, equalweight> underweight, 27>25
IMAB +4.3%
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KDP +8.0%, EPS 54cents inline. Rev' y/y +10.7% to $4.30bn vs 4.15est. Will receive $7bn investment, lead by Apollo and KKR
-
LAC -3.1%
META +1.4%, earnings Wed' AH
MSFT +1.3%, earnings Wed' AH
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MSTR +3.8%
MP -5.8%
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NEM -5.5%
ONDS +7.0%
PAAS -3.7%
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RKLB +2.2%
SMR +3.4%
TMQ -9.0%
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TSLA +1.4%
UAL +1.1%
UPS +0.3%, earnings due early Tues'
UMAC +14.2%
UNG -2.5%, with Natgas $3.94

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VIX -4.1% at 15.70
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VSCO +1.8%, Goldman, sell>neutral, 18>32
XPEV +1.8%
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Overnight markets

Asian markets were sig' higher, whilst European markets are broadly flat...


Japan: +2.5% to 50512 (new hist' high)
China: +1.2% to 3996 (new multi-decade high)

Germany: currently -0.02% at 24235
UK: currently +0.03% at 9648