Saturday, 26 June 2021

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +3.4% (Dow), +3.2% (NYSE comp'), +2.7% (SPX), +2.4% (Transports), to +2.3% (Nasdaq comp').

Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

NYSE comp'

Trans

Summary

All five US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.

The Dow lead the way upward, with the Nasdaq comp' lagging.

The SPX and Nasdaq comp' broke new historic highs.

More broadly, all five US equity indexes are trading above their respective monthly 10MA, and I thus see the m/t trend as bullish.

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Looking ahead

Earnings:

M -

T - NG

W - BBBY, STZ, GIS, MU, YUMC

T - WBA, AYI

F -

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Econ-data/events

M -

T - Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con'

W - ADP jobs, Chicago PMI, Pending home sales, EIA Pet'

T - Weekly jobs, PMI/ISM manu', construction, vehicle sales

F - Monthly jobs, Intl' trade, factory orders.

*There will be an element of end quarter/first half 'squaring off' on Wednesday.

*As the following July 5th is CLOSED for Independence Day, the preceding Friday will be inclined for considerable chop on lighter vol'.

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Final note

After a rough Friday close, last weekend saw the crash callers appearing all over the place. Yet rather than further downside, the market saw a very significant rebound, with a few indexes even breaking new historic highs.

Equities appear set to continue broadly climbing into/across Q2 earnings season. Unless there is a sporadic severe geo-political 'event', there is little reason the bulls won't be able to hold the ball at least until Labor day. From there, the market will be increasingly prone to break (if briefly) on concerns of 'high inflation > rate hikes sooner than expected'. 

You can justly argue that some stocks are grossly over-valued, but that certainly isn't the case for everything. The energy sector remains cheap... certainly relative to WTIC. Do I need to highlight OXY and SLB again?

This market appears set for higher levels in July/Q3/H2, and all those crash calling maniacs are going to be back in their basements this weekend, and probably... for much of the summer. 

For more charts, and whatever else I want to post about - outside the control of the mainstream media hacks, you know where to find me in... the twilight zone.

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Have a good weekend

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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.