Wednesday, 30 April 2025

April settles

US equity indexes closed mixed, SPX +8pts (0.15%) at 5569. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled +0.5%. R2K -0.6%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

ADP jobs: 62K vs 155K prior
Q1 GDP (print’1): -0.3% vs +2.4% prior.
Chicago PMI: 44.6 vs 47.6 prior

... all lousy, with equities duly opening significantly lower. The SPX printed an early low of 5433, bouncing to 5581, and settling at 5569.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing a high of 28.17, but cooling back to settle +2.2% to 24.70.
-

The sun sets on April


Bullish aerial monsters


Is there an ETF for anti-histamines?


Growth is very strong... if not the economy itself


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 
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Tuesday, 29 April 2025

Tedious Tuesday

US equity indexes mostly closed moderately higher, SPX +32pts (0.6%) at 5560. Nasdaq comp' +0.5%. Dow +0.7%. The Transports settled +0.1%. R2K +0.6%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily



Summary

US equities opened a little choppy, if once again... leaning upward to print a new multi-week high of 5571, and settling moderately higher at 5560.

Volatility was lower for the 10th day of 14, the VIX settling -3.9% to 24.17. 

In theory... Wed'/end month should be more dynamic... and favour the bears.


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Goodnight from London
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Monday, 28 April 2025

A mixed Monday

US equity indexes mostly closed positive, SPX +3pts (0.1%) at 5528. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled +0.5%. R2K +0.5%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little choppy, but the SPX did lean upward to 5553. From there... cooling to 5468, and recovering to settle at 5528. Volatility picked up, the VIX printing 26.93, if cooling back to settling +1.2% to 25.15


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Goodnight from London
--

 

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Saturday, 26 April 2025

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +6.7% (Nasdaq comp'), +4.6% (SPX), +4.1% (R2K), +2.9% (NYSE comp'), +2.5% (Dow), to +0.4% (Trans).

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

Summary

All six US equity indexes were net higher for the week.

The Nasdaq was very powerfully higher, whilst the Transports was the laggard.

The SPX, Nasdaq, R2K, and NYSE comp', had bullish engulfing weekly candles, and are very suggestive of a higher high next week.

Looking ahead

An exceptionally busy week is ahead, with a truck load of big name earnings, and the first print of Q1 GDP. No doubt, there will be further tariff related news headlines.

Earnings

M - $DPZ $MGM $CX $WM $NXPI $FFIV $TER $NUE $RIG $WELL $CDNS $ABCB $AMKR

T - $KO $SOFI $PYPL $UPS $JBLU $PFE $RCL $SPOT $FOUR $MO $V $SBUX $SNAP $FSLR $PPG $BKNG $QRVO $OKE $ACGL $TTI

W - $CAT $HUM $VMC $WDC $GNRC $IP $WGS $ADP $HES $GEHC $MSFT $META $QCOM $HOOD $ALB $GRBK $PPC $NLY $CP $PRU

T - $MCD $SHAK $LLY $RBLX $CVS $MA $SIRI $BAX $PWR $BLDR $AMZN $AAPL $RIOT $ABNB $RDDT $BBAI $TEAM $FIVN $AIG $AJG

F - $XOM $CVX $AES $FUBO $BEP $MGA $APO $CE $WEN $FET

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Econ-data/events

M - -

T - Intl' trade, retail & wholesale inventories, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer conf', JOLTS

W - Q1 GDP (print'1), ADP jobs, Pers' income/spending, PCE, Chicago PMI, pending home sales

T - Weekly jobs, PMI & ISM manu', construction, vehicle sales

F - Monthly jobs, factory orders

*As Wednesday is end month, I'd expect more dynamic price action on higher vol'. In theory... leaning to the downside.

-

Final note

If anything, its bemusing that some don't accept 4835 as a key low. Somewhat less bizarre is seeing a number touting a straight push to new historic highs. On what excuse do they see that happening? I see a fair number of upside targets, but no one wants to give a reason for such upside.

Whilst yours truly is still lacking a DeLorean, the style of price action we've seen since the Feb' high of 6147 is clear. We're s/t bullish into the May 7th FOMC. The SPX 5700s and VIX 20s is the easy call. The tough call is whether we then stall... and eventually break <4835, or broadly climb across the summer. 

Regular readers should be well aware of where I see us headed. For now, I'll merely note... m/t bearish unless >5850 (to be decisive).

Just be sure to have enough popcorn for the 'big show', which is only going to become more dramatic,  but then... who doesn't love some drama?


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Have a good weekend
--

*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 25 April 2025

Algo bot melt into the weekend

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, SPX +40pts (0.7%) at 5525. Nasdaq comp' +1.3%. Dow +0.05%. The Transports settled -1.9%. R2K +0.1%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly flat. There was a little cooling, but all the bears could manage was 5455. From there... algo bot upward melt to 5528, and settling at 5525.

Volatility was ground lower into the weekend, the VIX settling -6.2% to 24.84.  
-

Soon... we can call it the 'Starmer sun'


Bullish green & flowers

A very hazy sky... as Starmer is seeking
 


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Thursday, 24 April 2025

A third day higher

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, SPX +108pts (2.0%) at 5484. Nasdaq comp' +2.7%. Dow +1.2%. The Transports settled +1.9%. R2K +2.1%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly flat, but then leaned upward to build very significant gains to 5489, and settling at 5484. Volatility was ground lower for the 8th day of 11, settling -7.0% to 26.47.
-

Sunny, if only 13c/55f


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Goodnight from London
--

 

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Wednesday, 23 April 2025

Midweek positivity

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, SPX +88pts (1.7%) at 5375. Nasdaq comp' +2.5%. Dow +1.1%. The Transports settled +1.1%. R2K +1.6% 

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened rather powerfully higher, with the SPX pushing to 5469. There was a natural cooling wave into the afternoon to 5356, and settling at 5375.

Volatility was ground lower for the 7th day of 10, the VIX settling -6.9% to 28.45.
-





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Goodnight from London
--

 

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Tuesday, 22 April 2025

Tuesday rebound

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, SPX +129pts (2.5%) at 5287. Nasdaq comp' +2.7%. Dow +2.7%. The Transports settled +1.5%. R2K +2.6%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened sig' higher, with the SPX pushing to 5309, if cooling back to settle at 5287.
Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -9.6% to 30.57.


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Monday, 21 April 2025

Easter Monday

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -124pts (2.4%) at 5158. Nasdaq comp' -2.5%. Dow -2.5%. The Transports settled -2.0%. R2K -1.9%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

Whilst those on the eastern side of the Atlantic took another day off, the US market opened significantly lower. The SPX slid into the afternoon, printing 5101, with a late afternoon mini ramp to settle at 5158.

Volatility picked up, the VIX printing 35.75, and settling +14.1% to 33.82. 
-

Bullish Buddleia

Not the most inspiring of skies


Bullish sun


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Saturday, 19 April 2025

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -2.7% (Dow), -2.6% (Nasdaq comp'), -1.5% (SPX), +0.2% (Trans), +0.8% (NYSE comp'), to +1.1% (R2K).

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

Summary

Three US equity indexes were net lower for the week, with three net higher.

The Dow was rather powerfully lower, whilst the R2K was sig' higher.

Looking ahead

Earnings:

M - $WASH $CMA $CCBG $DX $HBT $GNTY $BOH $WRB $AZZ $AGNC $MEDP $FLXS $MCB $BOKF $CADE $CALX $CATY

T - $VZ $GE $LMT $RTX $DHR $DGX $HAL $ELV $SYF $KMB $TSLA $ISRG $ENPH $SAP $COF $STLD $BKR $RRC $WFRD $ZWS

W - $BA $T $VRT $APH $NEE $CHKP $PM $GEV $VIRT $ODFL $IBM $ALK $NOW $CMG $CCS $ORLY $NEM $TXN $LRCX $LVS

T - $AAL $LUV $FCX $NOK $MRK $PEP $NDAQ $VLO $UNP $CNP $INTC $GOOGL $CLS $TMUS $AEM $BYD $VALE $DOC $SKX $WY

F - $SLB $PSX $ABBV $CL $POR $SAIA $CNC $AVTR $CHTR $LYB

-

Econ-data/events

M - Leading indicators

T - -

W - PMI serv' & manu', new home sales, Fed Beige book

T - Weekly jobs, durable goods orders

F - Consumer sent' 

*UK/European markets will be CLOSED on Monday April 21st, and the US market could be expected to be somewhat more subdued than it otherwise would be.

-

Final note

It was a mixed week for the US market, but all the indexes held well above the prior week's low. Weekly momentum is on the very low side, and I have to lean net bullish into May. SPX should at least test the 200dma (currently 5751), and whether that is within May, or not until June, shouldn't matter to most.

Considering 'everything', I'd look for a stall from the 5700/5850 area, and then break a new multi-month low this summer. The bears arguably have until the typical seasonal floor of October. From then onward, the market will be prone to broad upside into early 2026. 

For more of the same... you know where to find me.

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Have a good Easter
--

*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on Monday.