Tuesday, 4 February 2025

Positive Tuesday

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +43pts (0.7%) at 6037. Nasdaq comp' +1.3%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled +1.1%. R2K +1.4%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly flat, but the SPX did claw upward to 6040... a full fill of Monday's opening gap. The SPX printed 6042, and settled at 6037. Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -7.6% to 17.21
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Goodnight from London
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Monday, 3 February 2025

Tariff related swings

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, SPX -45pts (0.8%) at 5994. Nasdaq comp' -1.2%. Dow -0.3%. The Transports settled -2.3%. R2K -1.1%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equity indexes opened very significantly lower on weekend tariff related headlines. The SPX printed 5923, if rebounding to 6022 on yet another tariff headline (USA/Mexico... no tariffs for a month). The afternoon saw considerable chop, with a rather weak closing hour.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing an opening high of 20.42, cooling to 17.71, and settling +13.3% at 18.62.

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Full moon is Feb'12th


A little closer


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Saturday, 1 February 2025

Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a net bullish month for most world equity markets, with monthly changes ranging from +9.2% (Germany), +4.7% (USA, Brazil), +4.4% (Australia), +2.4% (Russia), +1.3% (South Africa), +1.2% (Argentina), -0.8% (Japan, India), to -3.0% (China).

Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.

USA - Dow


Germany – DAX


Japan – Nikkei


Brazil – Bovespa


Russia - RTSI

India – SENSEX


China – Shanghai comp'


South Africa – Dow


Argentina - MerVal


Australia – AORD


Summary

Seven world equity markets were net higher for January, with three net lower

Germany lead the way upward, whilst China was rather powerfully lower.

Germany, Argentina, and Australia broke new historic highs.

Seven markets are trading above their respective monthly 10MA, the three exceptions being Brazil, India, and China.

Six markets have positive monthly price momentum, the four exceptions being Japan, Brazil, Russia, and India.

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Looking ahead

Another busy week is ahead. We can expect some market moving 'tariff' news.

Earnings:

M - PMI manu', ISM manu', construction, vehicle sales

T - JOLTS, factory orders

W - ADP jobs, intl' trade, ISM serv', EIA Pet'

T - Weekly jobs, productivity

F - Monthly jobs, wholesale invent', consumer sent', consumer credit (3pm)

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Econ-data/events:

M - $SAIA $TSN $IDXX $PLTR $KD $CLX $RBB $DOC $NXPI $BRBR $RMBS $FN $FLXS

T - $PYPL $SPOT $PFE $REGN $MRK $PEP $RACE $EL $EPD $APO $AMD $GOOGL $SNAP $CMG $ENPH $AMGN $EA $LUMN $PRU $JNPR 

W - $DIS $UBER $NVO $EQNR $TM $BSX $JCI $SWK $ACB $ODFL $F $QCOM $ARM $SYM $AMSC $VKTX $ORLY $PI $ALGN $AFL 

T - $LLY $RBLX $COP $PTON $HSY $BMY $TPR $BCE $YUM $PM $AMZN $ELF $NET $AFRM $FTNT $MCHP $PINS $VCTR $MPWR $POWL

F - $CGC $PAA $FLO $NWL $AVTR $FTV $EAF $BYRN $CBOE $KIM

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Venus and the Crescent moon. Its a sign.
 

Final note

2025 has started on a broadly positive note. Most notable was the German market accelerating to the upside, breaking a new historic high. This was more impressive, considering the background chatter about AFD, and the upcoming (Feb' 23rd) elections. 

Whilst the USA (Dow) didn't break a new hist' high, the US market itself remains unquestionably mid term very strong. I'd note the monthly 10MA at 41412, as the bears have nothing to tout unless a February settlement <41500.

President Trump... aka... Tariff Man, is clearly going to make economic and market waves across the next four years. Some will be negative, but some will certainly see the market soar. Got enough popcorn? 

 
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on Monday.