Positive Tuesday

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +43pts (0.7%) at 6037. Nasdaq comp' +1.3%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled +1.1%. R2K +1.4%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly flat, but the SPX did claw upward to 6040... a full fill of Monday's opening gap. The SPX printed 6042, and settled at 6037. Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -7.6% to 17.21
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Goodnight from London
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Tariff related swings

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, SPX -45pts (0.8%) at 5994. Nasdaq comp' -1.2%. Dow -0.3%. The Transports settled -2.3%. R2K -1.1%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equity indexes opened very significantly lower on weekend tariff related headlines. The SPX printed 5923, if rebounding to 6022 on yet another tariff headline (USA/Mexico... no tariffs for a month). The afternoon saw considerable chop, with a rather weak closing hour.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing an opening high of 20.42, cooling to 17.71, and settling +13.3% at 18.62.

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Full moon is Feb'12th

A little closer

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Goodnight from London
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Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a net bullish month for most world equity markets, with monthly changes ranging from +9.2% (Germany), +4.7% (USA, Brazil), +4.4% (Australia), +2.4% (Russia), +1.3% (South Africa), +1.2% (Argentina), -0.8% (Japan, India), to -3.0% (China).

Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.

USA - Dow

Germany – DAX

Japan – Nikkei

Brazil – Bovespa

Russia - RTSI

India – SENSEX

China – Shanghai comp'

South Africa – Dow

Argentina - MerVal

Australia – AORD

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Summary

Seven world equity markets were net higher for January, with three net lower

Germany lead the way upward, whilst China was rather powerfully lower.

Germany, Argentina, and Australia broke new historic highs.

Seven markets are trading above their respective monthly 10MA, the three exceptions being Brazil, India, and China.

Six markets have positive monthly price momentum, the four exceptions being Japan, Brazil, Russia, and India.

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Looking ahead

Another busy week is ahead. We can expect some market moving 'tariff' news.

Earnings:

M - PMI manu', ISM manu', construction, vehicle sales

T - JOLTS, factory orders

W - ADP jobs, intl' trade, ISM serv', EIA Pet'

T - Weekly jobs, productivity

F - Monthly jobs, wholesale invent', consumer sent', consumer credit (3pm)

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Econ-data/events:

M - $SAIA $TSN $IDXX $PLTR $KD $CLX $RBB $DOC $NXPI $BRBR $RMBS $FN $FLXS

T - $PYPL $SPOT $PFE $REGN $MRK $PEP $RACE $EL $EPD $APO $AMD $GOOGL $SNAP $CMG $ENPH $AMGN $EA $LUMN $PRU $JNPR 

W - $DIS $UBER $NVO $EQNR $TM $BSX $JCI $SWK $ACB $ODFL $F $QCOM $ARM $SYM $AMSC $VKTX $ORLY $PI $ALGN $AFL 

T - $LLY $RBLX $COP $PTON $HSY $BMY $TPR $BCE $YUM $PM $AMZN $ELF $NET $AFRM $FTNT $MCHP $PINS $VCTR $MPWR $POWL

F - $CGC $PAA $FLO $NWL $AVTR $FTV $EAF $BYRN $CBOE $KIM

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Venus and the Crescent moon. Its a sign.

 

Final note

2025 has started on a broadly positive note. Most notable was the German market accelerating to the upside, breaking a new historic high. This was more impressive, considering the background chatter about AFD, and the upcoming (Feb' 23rd) elections. 

Whilst the USA (Dow) didn't break a new hist' high, the US market itself remains unquestionably mid term very strong. I'd note the monthly 10MA at 41412, as the bears have nothing to tout unless a February settlement <41500.

President Trump... aka... Tariff Man, is clearly going to make economic and market waves across the next four years. Some will be negative, but some will certainly see the market soar. Got enough popcorn? 

 
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on Monday.

Tariff man strikes into the close

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, SPX +31pts (0.5%) at 6071. Nasdaq comp' +0.25%. Dow +0.4%. The Transports settled -0.9%. R2K +1.0%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities mostly (Transports was skewed due to UPS) opened on a positive note, and saw positive leaning chop across into the mid afternoon.

President Trump... aka... Tariff Man, suggested he wanted a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods, the SPX cooling back from 6086 to 6039, if recovering to 6071.

Volatility was subdued into the afternoon, spiking on Trump, the VIX printing 16.42, if cooling back to  settling -4.3% at 15.84. 

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Yes, its been rainy lately

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Moderately bearish Powell

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, SPX -28pts (0.5%) at 6039. Nasdaq comp' -0.5%. Dow -0.3%. The Transports settled -0.2%. R2K -0.2%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities saw a natural holding pattern into the 2pm press release from Print Central. Rates were not surprisingly left unchanged. The Powell duly appeared...

There were a few bounce attempts, but the main market settled on a weak note.

Volatility was a little mixed, the VIX settling +0.9% at 16.56.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday bounce

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, SPX +55pts (0.9%) at 6067. Nasdaq comp' +2.0%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled -0.9%. R2K +0.1%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, but the gains were shaky from the start, with the SPX briefly cooling to 5962. There was a secondary push upward... settling broadly higher to 6067.

Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -8.3% to 16.41.

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Goodnight from London
--

 

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Into the Deep... Seek

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, SPX -88pts (1.5%) at 6012. Nasdaq comp' +3.1%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled +1.5%. R2K -1.0%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a very weak note, with the SPX falling to 5962. There was a bounce to 6017, before renewed cooling to 5979. The afternoon saw a bounce to settle at 6012.

Volatility saw a (cash market) early high of 20.61, before cooling to settle +20.5% to 17.90.
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Sunshine and showers

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +2.1% (Dow), +2.0% (NYSE comp'), +1.7% (SPX), +1.6% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.4% (R2K), to +1.1% (Trans).

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

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Summary

All six US equity indexes were net higher for the week.

The Dow lead the way up, whilst the Transports lagged. 

The SPX broke a new historic high. 

Last week's bullish engulfing candles played out. 

Weekly momentum is swinging back toward the equity bulls, and bodes net bullish into February.

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Looking ahead

Earnings:

M - $SOFI $T $BOH $DX $HOPE $NUE $ARE $WRB $HBCP $EFSC $CR $SANM $WAL $AGNC $BRO

T - $BA $GM $LMT $RTX $RCL $SYF $JBLU $SYY $CVLT $KMB $SBUX $SAP $LV $LOGI $LRN $NXT $PKG $CB $FFIV $SYK 

W - $ASML $PGR $TMUS $ADP $DHR $TEVA $GD $VFC $NDAQ $EAT $TSLA $META $MSFT $IBM $LRCX $HITI $NOW $CLS $WOLF $WDC

T - $UPS $MA $DOW $BX $NOK $LUV $ALGM $CAT $CMCSA $MBLY $AAPL $INTC $V $KLAC $CNI $TEAM $BKR $DECK $X $SKYW

F - $XOM $CVX $PSX $ABBV $CL $BAH $LYB $BEP $ALV $CHTR

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Econ-data/events

M - New home sales

T - Durable goods orders, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer conf'

W - Intl' trade, wholesale & retail inventories

*2pm FOMC announcement, 2.30pm Press conf'.

T - GDP Q4 (print'1) ,weekly jobs, pending home sales

F - Pers' spending/outlays, PCE, Chicago PMI

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A cold 3c/37f, but impressive skies

Final note

With a new hist' high in the SPX, it has to be seen as a net bullish week. The mainstream are effectively in #everythingisfine mode, reflected in VIX 14s.

The coming week offers some drama, not least with a truck load of big name earnings. We've the first FOMC of the year, as the Fed will surely not cut rates. If correct, President Trump could be expected to issue some complaints, as I expect tensions between the Whitehouse and the Fed to increase all the way into the summer. 

One thing is certain... we're going to need more popcorn than ever before!

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Have a good weekend
--

*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on Monday.

Weak into the weekend

US equity indexes closed a little lower, SPX -17pts (0.3%) at 6101. Nasdaq comp' -0.5%. Dow -0.3%. The Transports settled -0.2%. R2K -0.2%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities mostly saw a day of micro chop, although the SPX still printed a new hist' high of 6128, if cooling back to settle at 6101. Volatility was ground lower into the weekend, the VIX settling -1.1% to 14.85.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Underlying upward pressure

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +32pts (0.5%) at 6118. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. Dow +0.9%. The Transports settled +0.5%. R2K +0.4%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and largely remained that way into the early afternoon. The mid/late afternoon saw a mini burst upward... breaking a new hist' high of 6118.

Volatility was naturally subdued, the VIX settling -0.5% at 15.02
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A little sunshine... after the rain

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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