Just a retrace

US equity indexes closed powerfully lower, SPX -188pts (3.5%) at 5268. Nasdaq comp' -4.3%. Dow -2.5%. The Transports settled -4.2%. R2K -4.1%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

The began in pre-market with the latest inflation data...

Headline y/y: 2.4% vs 2.8% prior
Core y/y: 2.8% vs 3.1% prior

... which should please those at Print Central.

The SPX opened rather powerfully lower, falling into the early afternoon to 5115. There was a strong rebound, if still settling powerfully lower at 5268.

Volatility was very mixed, the VIX printing 54.87, if cooling back to settle +21.1% at 40.72.
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100K filter... as the sun remains active

 

Full moon will be overnight April 12-13th

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Monstrous ramp

US equity indexes closed monstrously higher, SPX +474pts (9.5%) at 5456. Nasdaq comp' +12.2%. Dow +7.9%. The Transports settled +10.1%. R2K +8.5% 

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

Overnight action wasn't pretty, with the SPX some -150pts, an effective test of the Monday low of 4835. There was a pre-market recovery, with equities opening moderately lower. The SPX printed 4948, but leaned upward into the early afternoon.

Tariff news saw a monstrous ramp, the SPX printing 5481, and settling at 5456.

Volatility saw an early high of 52.56, but with the tariff news, VIX was crushed, printing 31.90, and settling -35.7% to 33.62.
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 A very sunny... and bullish Wednesday

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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A turbulent Tuesday

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -79pts (1.6%) at 4982. Nasdaq comp' -2.1%. Dow -0.8%. The Transports settled -2.7%. R2K -2.9%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

Equities opened rather powerfully higher, the SPX printing 5267. 11am saw a typical turn... if very powerful cooling wave, that stretched into the late afternoon to 4910, and settling at 4982.

Volatility was itself extremely mixed, the VIX printing a morning low of 36.48, if surging to 57.52, and settling +11.4% at 52.33.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Probable capitulation

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, SPX -11pts (0.2%) at 5062. Nasdaq comp' +0.1%. Dow -0.9%. The Transports settled -1.3%. R2K -0.9%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened powerfully lower, with the SPX printing 4835, just 17pts above the Jan'2022 high. There was a hyper spike upward on a rumour that Trump might suspend tariffs for 90 days. That rumour was quickly dismissed by the Whitehouse, with another swing lower... if putting in a higher low of 4950.

The afternoon saw a number of swings, if settling marginally lower at 5062.

Volatility saw a pre-market print of 60.13, a cash market high of 54.20, and settling +3.7% to 46.98.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a very mixed month for world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from +5.8% (Brazil, India, Argentina), +2.0% (South Africa), +0.4% (China), -1.7% (Germany), -4.1% (Japan), -4.2% (USA, Australia), to -5.7% (Russia).

Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.

USA - Dow

Germany – DAX

Japan – Nikkei

Brazil – Bovespa

Russia - RTSI

India – SENSEX

China – Shanghai comp'

South Africa – Dow

Argentina - MerVal

Australia – AORD

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Summary

Five world markets were net higher for March, with five net lower.

Brazil, India, and Argentina lead the way up, whilst Russia was very powerfully lower.

The German and South African markets broke new historic highs.

Germany, Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa, and Argentina are trading above their respective monthly 10MA.

The USA, Germany, China, South Africa, and Argentina, have positive monthly momentum.

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Looking ahead

It will be the start of Q1 earnings season, starting with the financial giant JPM

Earnings:

M - $LEVI $PLAY $GBX

T - $WBA $TLRY $RPM $WDFC $CALM $MAMA $AEHR $KRUS $KRMN

W - $DAL $SMPL $NEOG $THTX $STZ $LAKE $PSMT $RELL $TBBB

T - $KMX $BYRN $LOVE $BSVN $NTIC

F - $JPM $MS $WFC $BLK $BK $FAST

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Econ-data/events:

M - Consumer credit (3pm)

T - NFIB optimism

W - Wholesale invent', EIA Pet', FOMC mins (2pm)

T - CPI, Weekly jobs, US T-budget

F - PPI, consumer sent',

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Final note

With Trump announcing tariffs, Thursday and Friday have seen the most bearish price action since March 2020. Some are using the C word... but that still isn't merited. I'd accept some individual stocks are in semi-crash mode. 

We're clearly s/t oversold, and prone to a multi-week bounce, with a fair number seeking a back test of the 200dma (and effectively... the monthly 10MA) in the 5700s within May/June.

As I noted at the end of March, I see the main market as 'Mid term broken', and I lean net bearish into the 'seasonal flooring time' of October. Whether that equates to SPX 4800, 4K, or even lower... I don't know. In either case, popcorn will be merited all the way into fall.

 

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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on Monday.

Horror into the weekend

US equity indexes closed very powerfully lower, SPX -322pts (6.0%) at 5074. Nasdaq comp' -5.8%. Dow -5.5%. The Transports settled -3.4%. R2K -4.5%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened powerfully higher, and whilst there were a few bounce attempts, the SPX broke a new cycle low of 5069, and settling at 5074. On any basis... it was a horrific Friday. 

Volatility spiked, the VIX settling +50.9% at 45.31.
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Sunny... in the failed state of the UK

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Post liberation horror

US equity indexes closed very powerfully lower, SPX -274pts (4.8%) at 5396. Nasdaq comp' -6.0%. Dow -4.0%. The Transports settled -9.1%. R2K -6.4%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened powerfully lower, with the market upset with the (Wednesday AH) Trump tariff announcement. The SPX printed 5415, with a vain bounce to 5483. The late afternoon saw a new cycle low of 5390, and settling at 5396. On any basis... pretty horrific, but then... it was a Thursday.

Volatility spiked, the VIX settling +39.6% to 30.02... the highest since August 2024.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Liberation Day

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, SPX +37pts (0.7%) at 5670. Nasdaq comp' +0.9%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled +1.4%. R2K +1.7% 

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened significantly lower, but there was an opening upside reversal, the SPX swinging from 5571 to 5695, and settling at 5670. Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing an opening high of 23.25, but cooling to 20.68, and settling -1.2% at 21.51.
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The construction is nearly done

Another fine spring day

 

Jupiter and the moon... its a sign!

Full moon... April 12th

 
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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April/Q2 begins

US equity indexes mostly closed a little higher, SPX +21pts (0.4%) at 5633. Nasdaq comp' +0.9%. Dow -0.03%. The Transports settled +0.2%. R2K +0.05%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, with the SPX seeing an early low of 5558. From there... a rather significant bounce to 5650, if cooling back to settle at 5633. Volatility was a little mixed, the VIX printing an early high of 23.52, but cooling back to settle -2.3% to 21.77.
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                 Another fine day

 

The Pleiades, aka 'Seven sisters' (400 light years), and the moon

 

Next full moon... April 12th

 
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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March/Q1 settles

US equity indexes closed somewhat mixed, SPX +30pts (0.5%) at 5611. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. Dow +1.0%. The Transports settled +1.0%. R2K -0.4% 

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened significantly lower, with the SPX breaking a new multi-month low of 5488. There was a very significant bounce to 5627, and settling at 5611. Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing an early high of 24.80, but cooling back to settle +2.2% to 22.28.
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The sun sets on March/Q1

  The crescent moon

 
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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