Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -0.9% (R2K), -0.7% (Dow), -0.4% (NYSE comp'), +0.1% (SPX), +0.3% (Trans), to +0.5% (Nasdaq comp').

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

NYSE comp'

R2K

Trans

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Summary

Three US equity indexes were net lower for the week, with three net higher.

The R2K was broadly lower, whilst the Nasdaq was moderately higher. 

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Looking ahead 

The schedule is very light, for what is a 3.5 trading day Christmas week.

Earnings:

M -

T - $LMNR 

W -

T -

F -

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Econ-data/events

M - -

T - Q3 GDP, durable goods orders, consumer conf'

W - Weekly jobs  *EARLY CLOSING*

T -*CLOSED*

F - -

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Stocked up for the winter

 

Final note

Reading around... I see more bearish outlooks for 2026 than bullish. Yours truly is (somewhat ironically) leaning to the latter, not least based on a few stocks... notably DECK and UNH. 

Silver is where the real action is. Maybe it will hit $100 in January, but if not... there is always February... and beyond. If you're bullish silver... you can't be bearish equities, as the two broadly trade together. 

With a SpaceX IPO likely due in Sept'2026, I'm increasingly thinking we'll see net upside into the late summer, before typical seasonal cooling into the midterms.

Of course... there are endless wild cards, not least Trump-Venezuela, Europe-Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan-China. I don't call it planet Krazy for nothing. 

With yours truly fully stocked, I shall hope you have enough popcorn to last across Christmas, and into the new year.

Have a good weekend
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 *the next post on this page will likely appear 6pm EST on Monday.

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Gold, Silver, miners...  

 -

A-Z of stocks 

 

A green QUAD-OPEX

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +60pts (0.9%) at 6834. Nasdaq comp' +1.3%. Dow +0.4%. The Transports settled +0.2%. R2K +0.8% 

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, the SPX battling upward to 6840, and settling at 6834.

Volatility was ground lower into the weekend, the VIX settling -11.6% to 14.91 

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        ... as winter solstice is near

 
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A positive Thursday

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, SPX +53pts (0.8%) at 6774. Nasdaq comp' +1.4%. Dow +0.1%. The Transports settled +0.8%. R2K +0.6%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly higher, with the SPX pushing to 6816. There was a brief cooling wave to 6758, and settling broadly higher at 6774. Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -4.3% to 16.87. 

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Day four for the bears

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, SPX -78pts (1.2%) at 6721. Nasdaq comp' -1.8%. Dow -0.5%. The Transports settled -0.5%. R2K -1.2%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little choppy. The SPX printed a minor high of 6812, before leaning increasingly weak, and settling at 6721.

Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +6.9% to 17.62 

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Crimson skies

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, SPX -16pts (0.2%) at 6800. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. Dow -0.6%. The Transports settled -0.1%. R2K -0.4% 

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little choppy on weak jobs data, the SPX cooling to 6759. The afternoon saw a moderate rally, settling at 6800.  Volatility was itself subdued, the VIX settling -0.1% to 16.48.

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   3.55pm GMT

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Failed gains

US equity indexes closed a little weak, SPX -10pts (0.2%) at 6816. Nasdaq comp' -0.6%. Dow -0.1%. The Transports settled -0.2%. R2K -0.8%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

Equities opened moderately higher, with the SPX printing 6861, but the gains were shaky, and fully eroded to 6801. The afternoon saw considerable chop, settling a little lower at 6816.

Volatility picked up a little, the VIX settling +4.8% to 16.50. 

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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.9% (Trans),  +1.2% (R2K), +1.0% (Dow), +0.9% (NYSE comp'), -0.6% (SPX), to -1.6% (Nasdaq comp').

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

–

Summary

Four US equity indexes were net higher for the week, with two net lower.

The 'old leader' was sig' higher, whilst the Nasdaq was sig' lower.

The Dow, NYSE comp', and R2K broke new historic highs.  

–

Looking ahead

Earnings:

M - $HYFT $OPTT $ABVX $NAVN

T - $DLTH $OGI $LEN $WOR 

W - $JBL $GIS $ABM $TTC $VERU $SPIR $NMTC $MU $WS $EPAC $MLKN 

T - $ACN $FDS $DRI $KMX $CTAS $FCEL $BIRK $ISSC $NKE $FDX $KBH $BB $AVO $SCHL $HEI

F - $CCL $CAG $LW $PAYX $WGO  

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Econ-data/events

M - Empire State manu', home builder conf;

T - Monthly jobs, retail sales, busin' invent, PMI serv' & manu'

W - EIA Pet'

T - CPI, Weekly jobs, Phil' Fed' manu'

F - Existing home sales, consumer sent', *QUAD-OPEX*

As Friday is quadruple option expiration, expect considerable chop on very high vol' 
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Final note 

Whilst the week ended on a bearish note, it was arguably a net bullish week for US equities, not least with a trio of index historic highs.

Next Mon/Tuesday will be inclined to be red, but this market has underlying strength, and I'd look for net weekly gains next week, with the SPX seeing an opex pin around 6900. 7K appears an eventuality, whether before or after Santa delivers, shouldn't matter to most. 

Yours truly remains focused on silver, which after a forty five year breakout in October, appears the most obvious trade for years to come. 

As for wild cards, even if you believe Trump will attack Venezuela, that doesn't seem likely until the flip side of New Years Eve. For now... net bullish into early 2026.  

If you value my work on Blogger, X, and want more of the same, subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on Monday.

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Ending red

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, SPX -73pts (1.1%) at 6827. Nasdaq comp' -1.7%. Dow -0.5%. The Transports settled -0.7%. R2K -1.5%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little choppy. The market took a significant swing lower to 6801, and settling sig' lower at 6827. Volatility picked up, the VIX printing 17.85, and settling +6.0% to 15.74.   

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A positive Thursday

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, SPX +14pts (0.2%) at 6901. Nasdaq comp' -0.25%. Dow +1.3%. The Transports settled +0.6%. R2K +1.1%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, but all the bears could manage was 6833, with a recovery to 6903, and settling at 6901. Volatility was mixed, printing 16.68, but cooling back to settle -5.8% to 14.85. 

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Another rate cut

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, SPX +46pts (0.7%) at 6886. Nasdaq comp' +0.3%. Dow +1.0%. The Transports settled +2.7%. R2K +1.3%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

Equities saw a natural holding pattern into the 2pm press release from the Fed.
Powell duly appeared at 2.30pm.

You'll miss him... when he's gone in May. 

 
Equities saw a few swings, printing a high of 6900, and settling broadly higher at 6886.  

With the Fed out of the way, volatility dropped, the VIX settling -6.8% to 15.77.

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Pre-FOMC chop

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, SPX -6pts (0.1%) at 6840. Nasdaq comp' +0.1%. Dow -0.4%. The Transports settled -0.5%. R2K +0.1%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities saw a day of pre-FOMC chop, with the collective of indexes settling broadly flat. 

Volatility was itself muted, the VIX settling +1.6% to 16.93. 

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A little cooling

US equity indexes closed a little weak, SPX -23pts (0.3%) at 6846. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. Dow -0.4%. The Transports settled -0.3%. R2K -0.04%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened fractionally higher to 6878, if cooling back to settle at 6846.

Volatility picked up, but the gain was largely technical, the VIX settling +8.1% to 16.66.   

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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly changes, ranging from +3.6% (Trans), +0.9% (Nasdaq comp'), +0.8% (R2K), +0.5% (Dow), +0.3% (SPX), to -0.1% (NYSE comp').

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts)

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

–

Summary

Five US equity indexes were net higher for the week.

The 'old leader' - Transports, was powerfully higher, whilst the NYSE comp' was fractionally lower.

The NYSE comp' broke a new hist' high.

More broadly, all six US equity indexes are trading above their respective monthly 10MA, and have positive monthly momentum.

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Looking ahead

Earnings:

M - $TOL $MAMA $PHR $OOMA $CMP

T - $CPB $SAIL $ASO $AZO $ARQQ $CGNT $OLLI $KFY $CAL $FERG $GME $CBRL $AVAV $CASY $BRZE $LAKE $PLAY $GNSS $AOUT 

W - $CHWY $PLAB $UEC $JILL $REVG $MOMO $VBNK $DAKT $ORCL $ADBE $SNPS $PL $ASYS $ELVA $OXM $NDSN $XZO $SKIL

T - $CIEN $MANU $LOVE $VRA $AVGO $LULU $COST $RH $NTSK $NX $MITK $KMTS 

F - $JOUT

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Econ-data/events

M - -

T - NFIB optimism, JOLTS

W - US T-budget.

*FOMC, 2pm announcement. Press conf' 2.30pm. A rate cut of -25bps to 3.50-3.75% can be expected.

T - Weekly jobs

F - -

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Final note

It was a second consecutive bullish week for the collective of US equities. The fact the NYSE comp' broke a new historic high, was another reminder of the mid/long term trend. 

This week's Fed is clearly going to see a rate cut, with QT having been formally concluded. You can begin to wonder... if... or rather when will the printers be spun up? 

Once the Fed is out of the way, the bulls have a clear path into early January. The only concern is a wild card event, but then... that is always the case. 

 

If you value my work on Blogger, and want more of the same, subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on Monday
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There should be at least a few names in there of interest.